In the first part of this long post, I’ve identified three instances where Bitcoin was used for transactions, namely: pizza, drugs, and ICOs. I’ve postulated that the transactional nature of Bitcoin doesn’t confer it any long-term value, but instead creates speculative bubbles due to long transaction periods, and the price inelasticity of demand for transactions.
In this second part, I’ll first outline why it’s nonsensical to fantasise about Bitcoin becoming a widespread currency in its current form, basically debunking Saifedean Ammous’ arguments inspired from the Austrian School of Economics. Then, I’ll consider its potential as a launchpad for new, innovative financial instruments - a feature that is indeed promising, although still a dream.
Despite all the hype, speculation and FOMO, nobody got close to a credible valuation model for Bitcoin. Those who, like Tom Lee, claim that “Bitcoin is worth X dollars”, usually simply run a regression of Bitcoin’s price against a few variables, and pretend that correlation equals causation.
To come up with a valuation model for Bitcoin, one first has to understand where its value comes from. I’ll go through the usual suspects - means of transaction (check out the part on speculation cycles !), store of value, network effect, and try to explore new sources of value.
“Pomp”, a fictional character that appeared to me in a dream, shouldn’t be confused with Anthony Pompliano, whom I’ve never met, spoken to, or interacted with in any other way than just screwing around his Twitter handle until he banned me.
Enough with the pessimism. Bitcoin is down 80% from all time highs, we get it. So what? It has happened so many times before, and will happen again. You can’t have outsized returns without outsized volatility. We’re still on track for $1,000,000 by 2022, as I predicted in mid-2018, and here are the reasons for it.
By now, everyone knows that General Electric is in big trouble. However, the market still believes that they’ll somehow manage to get out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. They won’t, because of what has happened with solar over the last couple of months.